IMD forecast rise in minimum temperature, scattered rain in north India due to western disturbances

The minimum temperature in the Capital on Sunday settled at 5 degrees Celsius, which is 2 degrees below normal for the season, while the air quality was in the “severe” category.

The IMD has forecast that temperatures will stay below normal for the next two days, after which the minimum temperature will rise and the maximum will fall under the influence of a ‘western disturbance’ that is likely to bring rain.

The average 24-hour AQI score of the Capital, based on readings from 33 monitoring stations, was 404.

The forecast for January 3 said “partly cloudy sky with shallow to moderate fog in the morning. The maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be around 21 and six degrees Celsius respectively”.

System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) in its forecast said that prevailing cold wave conditions in the north-west region with moderate winds blowing from west/north-west direction led to degradation in the air quality.

“Maximum temperature shows a tendency to increase slightly on January 3 and 4 with mixing layer height of about one km. The net effect is likely to keep AQI in the ‘higher end of very poor’ level for the next two days. On January 5, AQI may touch ‘severe’ category due to a likely drop in the maximum temperature and consequent reduction in ventilation,” the SAFAR bulletin said.

Moisture incursion

The IMD in its forecast has said that two consecutive active western disturbances — the first between January 3 and 6 and the second between January 7 and 9 — with moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea are likely to affect the north-west and adjoining central India for the next seven days.

“Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rain is likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh during January 5-7,” it said.

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