Former British Prime Minister David Cameron on Thursday said there is 80% chance that his country would leave the EU on the basis of an agreed deal and 20% chance that the deal would be brought to some form of political blockage.

Speaking to the 90th AGM of Indian Chamber of Commerce in Kolkata, the Conservative Party leader said under Brexit negotiations, there is a fundamental choice whether the country stays close to the single European market or it stays entirely separate and makes its own rules.

“It really is a trade off between economic benefit and perceived political independence… I say perceived because I do not buy the argument…,” Mr. Cameron said. He advocated the option of a soft Brexit by staying close to the single market and added that a ‘harder Brexit’ would create more friction.

Asked about the impact of Brexit on the British economy, he replied: “It depends on what sort of Brexit it is. If it is a Brexit where we remain allied to the single market or somewhere… I don’t think the impact will be huge.”

Rational argument

Mr. Cameron, who demitted office after the Brexit referendum in 2016, said he wanted his country to be part of the EU.

During the discussion, he defended his decision to hold the referendum and said that the issue of Brexit was poisoning Britain’s politics. He said the rational argument was staying inside the EU and fighting for change. In hindsight, emotional arguments trumped some of the rational arguments, he added.

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